Executive Summary
The three HHS contracts analyzed, totaling $195.5 million, are exclusively civilian awards with no defense exposure, reflecting sustained federal investment in health IT and biomedical research services. The highest-conviction signal is Leidos’ $87.1 million NIH NCI delivery order, which demonstrates competitive strength in life sciences R&D under a low-risk cost-plus-fixed-fee structure, though only 25% is funded to date.
Booz Allen Hamilton’s $73.2 million CMS Marketplace System Integrator award (with potential $354.4 million ceiling) signals stable healthcare IT demand but carries medium execution risk due to labor-hours pricing. A key risk is the modest near-term revenue visibility across all contracts, as most funding is forward-looking and subject to option exercise or budget cycles.
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Investment Signals (3)
- Leidos Biomedical Research wins $87.1M NIH NCI delivery order, reinforcing competitive moat in health R&D (MEDIUM)▲
Leidos secured a cost-plus-fixed-fee delivery order under full-and-open competition, indicating strong positioning in biomedical research services with stable margins. The contract supports NIAID VRC operations, a priority area for pandemic preparedness.
- Bullish (MEDIUM)▲
Booz Allen Hamilton won a $73.2M CMS delivery order for Marketplace System Integrator services, with a potential ceiling of $354.4M through 2031, signaling sustained demand for healthcare IT systems integration. The full-and-open competition win suggests competitive advantage over peers.
- Booz Allen Hamilton’s labor-hours pricing structure introduces cost overrun risk on $73.2M CMS contract (MEDIUM)▲
The labor-hours pricing model means Booz Allen bears cost risk if actual hours exceed estimates, potentially compressing margins. Subawards of $19M (26% of obligation) further reduce direct revenue capture.
Risk Flags (3)
- Execution [MEDIUM RISK]▼
Leidos’ $87.1M NIH contract has only $21.6M (25%) outlaid, with a current end date of August 2026. Most revenue is forward-looking and subject to performance milestones and option exercise.
- Budget [MEDIUM RISK]▼
Booz Allen Hamilton’s $73.2M CMS contract is only funded for one year (2026-2027) out of a potential 5-year term. Option exercise depends on CMS budget allocations for FY2027-2031, which are subject to political uncertainty.
- Concentration [LOW RISK]▼
JBS International’s $35.2M SAMHSA contract represents a multi-year revenue stream but is concentrated in a single agency (SAMHSA) and a low-tech professional services niche, limiting scalability.
Opportunities (3)
- ◆
Leidos’ $87.1M NIH NCI win positions the company for follow-on awards in biomedical research, especially as pandemic preparedness remains a bipartisan priority. The cost-plus structure provides stable margins.
- ◆
Booz Allen Hamilton’s CMS MSI contract has a $354.4M ceiling, offering significant upside if all options are exercised through 2031. This aligns with ongoing healthcare marketplace complexity and IT modernization.
- ◆
JBS International, a woman-owned business, secured a $35.2M SAMHSA contract under full-and-open competition without set-aside, demonstrating merit-based win capability. Future set-aside opportunities could provide preferential access.
Sector Themes (2)
- ◆
All three contracts are HHS awards, with $160.3M (82% of total) going to Leidos and Booz Allen for health R&D and IT systems integration. This underscores stable, non-discretionary funding for healthcare infrastructure and research services.
- ◆
Two of three contracts (Leidos $87.1M, JBS $35.2M) use cost-plus pricing, which limits downside risk for contractors. Only Booz Allen’s labor-hours contract carries medium pricing risk.
Watch List (3)
- 👁
{"entity"=>"Leidos Holdings, Inc.", "reason"=>"Only 25% of $87.1M NIH contract funded; option exercise by August 2026 is critical for revenue visibility.", "trigger"=>"Option exercise announcement; quarterly revenue recognition in SEC filings"}
- 👁
{"entity"=>"Booz Allen Hamilton Inc.", "reason"=>"CMS contract has $354.4M ceiling but only $73.2M funded for one year; labor-hours pricing adds execution risk.", "trigger"=>"CMS budget for FY2027-2031; Q2 2026 earnings margin commentary"}
- 👁
{"entity"=>"JBS International, Inc.", "reason"=>"Concentration in SAMHSA technical assistance; future obligations under $35.2M contract will indicate agency relationship depth.", "trigger"=>"Future SAMHSA obligations; re-compete announcements for state program improvement"}
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