All NASA Contracts — October 15, 2026

Blue Origin's NASA Kennedy Space Center delivery order under the VADR vehicle runs through 2032-01-27 with $18.5M outlaid to date. Only about 2% of the $5.0B ceiling is currently obligated, so further order flow is the key upside driver.

Impulse Space, a small and U.S.-owned business, received a firm-fixed-price umbrella task order running through 2032 with $37.4M obligated. Outlays of only $239,116 mean revenue recognition is still early-stage.

Only $59,040 of the $35,992,906 obligation has been outlaid, and the obligation is about 0.72% of the stated ceiling. Headline value should not be treated as committed revenue.

The COSMIC core facilities order at Stennis runs 2026-10-01 to 2027-09-30 with $0 outlaid as of award. Execution, not award, will determine whether this is realized revenue.

Denmar's not-competed firm-fixed-price contract for a Boeing 737-700 reduced-gravity modification places overrun risk on a small contractor, with the record flagged high pricing risk.

Amentum's $12.8M cost-plus-fixed-fee NASA Ames order has about 80% outlaid and ends 2026-11-30 with no options indicated, making recompete or follow-on task orders a near-term catalyst.

4M Research's $9.9M NASA Marshall IV&V BPA call is about 92% outlaid with an end date of 2026-11-14, so a follow-on solicitation is the key event to watch.

Caltech holds five of the thirteen NASA awards, with the largest being the $112.3M SKYFALL order; these are non-competed cost-plus awards to a nonprofit, limiting any public-equity read-through.

Large headline ceilings (Blue Origin $5.0B, Arrow $5.0B, Impulse $300M) are mostly unobligated, so realized revenue depends on future orders and option exercises rather than current obligations.

California Institute of Technology accounts for the majority of obligated dollars and five awards, creating concentration in a non-investable recipient and JPL sole-source relationship.

The data provides no NASA appropriations or multi-year budget trend, so directional budget conclusions cannot be drawn; a continuing resolution could delay new award flow.

Awards to Denmar, 4M Research, and Amentum recompete or sunset in late 2026, and most awards were full and open, so re-competition outcomes are uncertain.

Blue Origin's $5.0B ceiling provides substantial headroom for additional launch task orders beyond the current $99.6M obligation.

Lunar instrumentation and payload work (Arizona State University AIRES, $10.2M) signals continued civilian lunar program activity, with $2.17M in subawards that may flow to other contractors.

Caltech's non-competed cost-plus JPL relationships provide a stable, sole-sourced research funding base, though not an investable equity exposure.

Blue Origin and Impulse Space hold multi-year launch-services vehicles with ceilings of $5.0B and $300M, though obligations remain small at roughly 2% and 12.5% of ceilings respectively.

Caltech and other nonprofit or university recipients account for the largest share of obligations, with cost-plus, non-competed structures.

Smaller engineering and technical service firms (4M Research, Denmar Technical Services, Nova Space Solutions) hold single-digit to low-double-digit million awards with notable execution uncertainty.

{"entity" => "Blue Origin, LLC", "reason" => "$99.6M obligated against a $5.0B VADR ceiling with $18.5M outlaid; order flow is the key upside driver.", "trigger" => "Incremental VADR task orders or modification of the 2032-01-27 end date"}

{"entity" => "Amentum Holdings Inc.", "reason" => "FILMSS 2 order ($12.8M) is about 80% outlaid and ends 2026-11-30 with no options.", "trigger" => "Recompete or follow-on FILMSS 2 award before 2026-11-30"}

{"entity" => "4M Research, Inc", "reason" => "IV&V BPA call is about 92% outlaid with an end date of 2026-11-14.", "trigger" => "NASA Marshall IV&V follow-on solicitation ahead of 2026-11-14"}

{"entity" => "Nova Space Solutions, LLC", "reason" => "Zero outlays on a $12.3M order starting 2026-10-01; execution is unproven.", "trigger" => "Outlay disclosures after 2026-10-01 and option exercise toward $18.4M"}

{"entity" => "Denmar Technical Services Inc", "reason" => "High pricing risk on a $9.9M firm-fixed-price aircraft modification with about 44% outlaid.", "trigger" => "Feasibility assessment outcome and exercise of modification options before 2027-02-01"}

{"entity" => "NASA budget (civilian space R&D)", "reason" => "No appropriations trend in the data; continuing resolution risk could delay new awards.", "trigger" => "FY2027 appropriations and any continuing resolution timeline"}