Executive Summary
Nine contract records totaling $1.88B in obligations signal bullish revenue stability for defense/space (BAE/Ball Corp, RTX/Raytheon), healthcare (Wisconsin Physicians, Dell), and infrastructure firms (TEPA, Kiewit, Maymead), with performance periods extending to 2029 and $1.1B+ remaining outlay potential. Unexercised options exceed $400M across deals, offering near-term upside amid low outlays on some awards.
Single neutral signal on minor Lockheed deal underscores focus on high-value, multi-year commitments from NASA, HHS, Interior, and DOT.
Materiality, sentiment, and priority are scored by Gunpowder’s analysis pipeline. How we score filings →
Tracking the trend? Catch up on the prior Contract Deobligations Alert digest from March 04, 2026.
Investment Signals (3)
- Ball Corp subsidiaries secure $644M NASA/DOJ revenue through 2029 (HIGH)▲
Two BAE units hold $475M NASA space contract (19-year term, $335M remaining) and $169M FBI BPA call ($183M options), with $141M outlayed to date.
- RTX Raytheon nears completion of $217M FAA sustainment order (HIGH)▲
$206M outlayed on 5-year cost-plus-fixed-fee deal ending 2026, with $19M options for follow-on potential.
- $543M infrastructure construction commitments to 2029 (MEDIUM)▲
TEPA ($219M BIA school), Kiewit ($218M NPS wastewater), Maymead ($107M FHWA highway) provide full funding visibility, $260M remaining outlays.
Risk Flags (3)
- Execution [HIGH RISK]▼
Firm fixed price structures on $651M construction/infra contracts expose to cost overruns, delays, inflation through 2029.
- Execution [MEDIUM RISK]▼
$0 outlays on $169M BAE FBI BPA and $0.15M Lockheed DEA order signal funding/execution delays.
- Market [MEDIUM RISK]▼
Award/performance fees in $1.06B cost-plus contracts (BAE NASA, Wisconsin CMS, Raytheon FAA) tie to govt evaluations.
Opportunities (2)
- ◆
$400M+ unexercised options across 6 contracts (e.g., $183M BAE FBI, $71M Wisconsin CMS, $75M Dell NIH).
- ◆
Follow-on potential in BIA/NPS/FHWA infra ($543M cluster) and FAA/DEA sustainment/equipment.
Sector Themes (3)
- ◆
$860M obligations to Ball/RTX/Lockheed from NASA/FAA/DOJ/FBI, with long horizons to 2029.
- ◆
$477M CMS/NIH awards to insurers/software providers through 2028.
- ◆
$543M firm commitments for schools, parks, highways to 2029.
Watch List (3)
- 👁
{"entity"=>"Ball Corporation", "reason"=>"Largest exposure at $644M across NASA/FBI; $518M remaining/upside.", "trigger"=>"Q1 2027 outlays >$50M or option pulls"}
- 👁
{"entity"=>"Construction trifecta (TEPA/Kiewit/Maymead)", "reason"=>"$543M cluster with FFP risks but full obligations.", "trigger"=>"Outlay acceleration to >50% by YE2026"}
- 👁
{"entity"=>"BAE FBI BPA ($352M ceiling)", "reason"=>"$0 outlay on 2019 award with $183M options to 2025.", "trigger"=>"New task orders or funding in H1 2026"}
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