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Contract Deobligations Alert — March 27, 2026

Contract Deobligations Alert

By Gunpowder Editorial ·

10 total filings analysed

Executive Summary

This Contract Deobligations Alert reveals $1.25B in large federal obligations, predominantly bullish (8/10) signals for IT services, construction, and health providers, with multi-year revenue visibility through 2037 for select firms. Leidos (LDOS) captures $146M across IRS and FAA IT/aero contracts, while Tutor Perini (TPC) and General Dynamics (GD) secure infrastructure and cyber wins amid firm-fixed-price dominance.

Risks from low outlays ($0 in 3 contracts) and cost overrun exposure warrant monitoring, but option exercises could unlock $2B+ upside.

Materiality, sentiment, and priority are scored by Gunpowder’s analysis pipeline. How we score filings →

Tracking the trend? Catch up on the prior Contract Deobligations Alert digest from March 26, 2026.

Investment Signals (4)

  • Leidos multi-agency IT dominance (HIGH)

    Leidos secures $146M obligated ($77.5M + $117M base+options) in IRS re-compete and FAA aeronautical systems through 2037, with 90%+ outlay progress on IRS task.

  • Construction backlog expansion (HIGH)

    Tutor Perini (TPC) and Caddell add $285M in embassy/hurricane rebuilds (5-6yr terms), BWI JV $187M canal project near full outlay.

  • Veteran-owned IT/health wins (MEDIUM)

    ThunderCat ($222M VA IT, $1.56B ceiling) and Heritage ($116M DOJ prisoner health) highlight SDVOSB/SDB advantages in services.

  • Legacy cyber contract stagnation (HIGH)

    GD IT's $81M FAA cyber obligation (ended 2017) shows $0 outlay and $610M unexercised options, limiting near-term impact.

Risk Flags (3)

  • Execution [HIGH RISK]

    Firm-fixed-price exposure in 9/10 contracts risks cost overruns, especially long-duration (5-19yr) like Leidos FAA to 2037.

  • Execution [MEDIUM RISK]

    $0 outlays in 3 contracts ($401M total: Caddell, Tutor Perini, Heritage) signal delayed cash flows despite obligations.

  • Market [MEDIUM RISK]

    Low obligated vs. ceilings (e.g., ThunderCat $222M/$1.56B) and JV structures (BWI) obscure revenue attribution.

Opportunities (3)

  • $2B+ in unexercised options (ThunderCat $1.34B, GD IT $610M, Leidos FAA $47M) across IT/infra.

  • Follow-ons from Phase 1 (BWI canal), embassy (Caddell), hurricane rebuild (TPC), and re-competes (Leidos IRS).

  • BARDA health R&D ($89M to 2028) and CMS consulting ($125M to 2027) sustain biotech/admin services funding.

Sector Themes (3)

  • 6/10 contracts ($789M) in IT/consulting (NAICS 5415xx), full/open wins for Leidos/GD signal competitive moats through 2037.

  • $472M in construction/engineering (NAICS 236/237), multi-year embassy/hurricane/canal projects despite firm-fixed risks.

  • $329M in HHS/DOJ health/IT (prisoner care, MCM storage, CMS consulting), blending small biz and long-term awards.

Watch List (3)

  • 👁

    {"entity"=>"Leidos (LDOS)", "reason"=>"$146M dual-agency wins with $47M options and 90% IRS outlay progress", "trigger"=>"FAA option funding or IRS follow-on award"}

  • 👁

    {"entity"=>"Tutor Perini (TPC)", "reason"=>"$117M Coast Guard rebuild to 2027 with $0 outlay", "trigger"=>"outlay initiation or Phase III task order"}

  • 👁

    {"entity"=>"ThunderCat Technology", "reason"=>"$222M/$1.56B VA IT ceiling, SDVOSB edge", "trigger"=>"option exercises post-2026"}

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