Executive Summary
This Contract Deobligations Alert synthesizes $4,176,750,195 in total civilian contract obligations across 6 awards from May 13, 2026, with 0/6 defense-related and average signal strength of 5.5/10, dominated by DHS ($1.72B), HHS ($1.57B across Bavarian Nordic A/S and Albert B. Sabin Vaccine Institute), and VA ($810M). Highest-conviction bullish signals (7/10 strength, 8/10 materiality) highlight durable revenue potential for Southwest Valley Constructors Co ($1.72B DHS), Bavarian Nordic A/S ($1.26B HHS), and Booz Allen Hamilton Inc ($809.8M VA IT services). Neutral signals temper smaller HHS R&D awards to Albert B. Sabin Vaccine Institute ($310M total) and USAID remediation to Nelson Environmental Remediation USA Ltd ($72.6M). Key risk: monitor outlay progress on multi-year contracts like Booz Allen's remaining $492M unoutlayed on VA order and Nelson's high firm-fixed-price execution risk.
Tracking the trend? Catch up on the prior Contract Deobligations Alert digest from May 06, 2026.
Investment Signals (4)
- Southwest Valley Constructors Co Lands $1.72B DHS Contract (HIGH)▲
Southwest Valley Constructors Co was awarded a $1,720,040,000 contract by Department of Homeland Security on 2026-05-11, signaling strong civilian infrastructure/security demand with high materiality.
- Bavarian Nordic A/S Secures $1.26B HHS Award (HIGH)▲
Bavarian Nordic A/S received a $1,264,240,981 contract from Department of Health and Human Services on 2017-08-24, underscoring sustained HHS commitment to biotech priorities.
- Booz Allen Hamilton Inc Wins $810M VA IT Delivery Order (HIGH)▲
Booz Allen Hamilton Inc was awarded a $809,754,946 time-and-materials delivery order by VA Technology Acquisition Center on 2019-05-17 for IT operations transformation, with $317.9M outlayed to date and full commitment indicating steady ~$140-145M annual revenue through 2025.
- Albert B. Sabin Vaccine Institute Gains $310M Dual HHS R&D Awards (MEDIUM)▲
$163M (2022) and $147M (2019) HHS contracts for Ebolavirus vaccine R&D total $310M obligation with $150.7M outlayed, potential to $391M including options through 2030.
Risk Flags (3)
- Execution [HIGH RISK]▼
Nelson Environmental Remediation USA Ltd faces high pricing risk on $72.6M firm-fixed-price USAID contract for dioxin remediation, with only $10.7M (15%) outlayed early in 6.6-year term.
- Budget [MEDIUM RISK]▼
Booz Allen Hamilton Inc's $809.8M VA contract has $492M remaining unoutlayed after $317.9M spent, vulnerable to deobligation trends or pacing delays through 2025-01-22.
- Concentration [MEDIUM RISK]▼
Albert B. Sabin Vaccine Institute, Inc. (nonprofit) holds dual HHS contracts totaling $310M, limiting equity upside but tying revenue to BARDA/ASPR R&D funding.
Opportunities (2)
- ◆
Albert B. Sabin Vaccine Institute, Inc. options on $163M HHS contract could expand to $241M for Sudan Ebolavirus manufacturing through 2030.
- ◆
Booz Allen Hamilton Inc stands to recognize $140-145M annual revenue from remaining $492M outlays on VA IT services order.
Sector Themes (3)
- ◆
HHS awarded $1.57B across Bavarian Nordic A/S ($1.26B) and Albert B. Sabin Vaccine Institute ($310M total) for viral vaccine R&D/manufacturing, with $62M-$88M outlayed per Sabin contracts.
- ◆
Booz Allen Hamilton Inc's $810M time-and-materials VA delivery order for IT transformation (NAICS 541512) fully committed with $318M outlayed supports multi-year services through 2025.
- ◆
Southwest Valley Constructors Co's $1.72B DHS award underscores large-scale construction/security focus.
Watch List (3)
- 👁
{"entity"=>"Booz Allen Hamilton Inc (BAH)", "reason"=>"Remaining $492M unoutlayed on $810M VA IT contract with $318M spent to date.", "trigger"=>"outlay progress updates; modifications to 2025-01-22 end date"}
- 👁
{"entity"=>"Albert B. Sabin Vaccine Institute, Inc.", "reason"=>"$310M dual HHS obligations with $150.7M outlayed and options to $391M.", "trigger"=>"option exercise; outlay beyond current levels"}
- 👁
{"entity"=>"Nelson Environmental Remediation USA Ltd", "reason"=>"High-risk firm-fixed-price on $72.6M USAID remediation with 15% outlayed.", "trigger"=>"performance by 2029-06-29; further deobligations"}
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