BLOG / 🇺🇸 United States · · daily

Contract Deobligations Alert — August 13, 2026

Contract Deobligations Alert

By Gunpowder Editorial ·

3 total filings analysed

Executive Summary

This digest covers three contracts totaling $860.4 million, with a heavily civilian tilt (2 of 3 contracts, $724.2 million) and only one defense-adjacent award ($136.2 million). The dominant agency theme is civilian health and education spending, led by a $639.6 million Department of Education modification to Missouri Higher Education Loan Authority—a neutral, low-visibility obligation.

The highest-conviction signal is Booz Allen Hamilton’s $136.2 million competitive win at Tinker AFB, a stable defense-adjacent IT services contract with moderate pricing risk. A key risk is the near-complete execution of Leidos’ $84.6 million VA medical exam contract, leaving minimal forward revenue visibility for that subsidiary. No bullish or bearish signals were identified across the set; all three contracts are neutral, reflecting routine obligations rather than transformative wins or losses.

Materiality, sentiment, and priority are scored by Gunpowder’s analysis pipeline. How we score filings →

Tracking the trend? Catch up on the prior Contract Deobligations Alert digest from August 12, 2026.

Investment Signals (2)

  • Leidos (QTC Medical Services) VA Contract Nearly Fully Outlayed – $84.6M (HIGH)

    The $84.6 million firm-fixed-price VA medical exam contract for QTC Medical Services (Leidos subsidiary) is 96% outlayed ($80.9M of $84.6M), leaving minimal remaining revenue and no forward visibility for this specific award.

  • Booz Allen Hamilton Tinker AFB Contract Has Negative Outlayed Amount – $136.2M (MEDIUM)

    The Booz Allen Hamilton $136.2 million GSA delivery order at Tinker AFB shows a negative outlayed amount in the data, which could indicate accounting adjustments or cash flow issues that require monitoring.

Risk Flags (3)

  • Execution [MEDIUM RISK]

    Booz Allen Hamilton’s $136.2 million Tinker AFB contract has a negative outlayed amount, potentially signaling cash flow timing issues or contract modification accounting that could affect near-term revenue recognition.

  • Concentration [MEDIUM RISK]

    Leidos’ VA medical exam revenue is concentrated in a single, nearly completed contract ($84.6M, 96% outlayed), with no follow-on award visible in this data set, creating a gap in health services revenue visibility.

  • Budget [MEDIUM RISK]

    The $639.6 million Department of Education modification to Missouri Higher Education Loan Authority carries unknown pricing and competition signals, and given civilian agency budget uncertainty under a potential Continuing Resolution, this large obligation may face deobligation risk.

Opportunities (2)

  • Booz Allen Hamilton’s competitive win at Tinker AFB ($136.2M, ceiling $161.5M) positions the company for follow-on IT and mission assurance work at a key Air Force base, with option exercises potentially increasing total value by 19%.

  • The VA’s $84.6 million firm-fixed-price award to Leidos’ QTC subsidiary under the Veterans Benefits Improvement Act signals stable statutory demand for medical disability exams, creating a potential re-compete opportunity in Region 1 (Northeast).

Sector Themes (2)

  • Two of three contracts ($724.2M, 84% of total value) are civilian—Education and VA—with neutral signals and limited forward revenue visibility, contrasting with defense-adjacent contracts that offer longer performance periods.

  • Both Booz Allen Hamilton and Leidos (QTC) won their contracts under full-and-open competition with no set-asides, indicating competitive moats in defense-adjacent IT and VA medical exams respectively.

Watch List (3)

  • 👁

    {"entity" => "Booz Allen Hamilton Inc.", "reason" => "Negative outlayed amount on $136.2M Tinker AFB contract and option exercise potential ($161.5M ceiling) create both risk and upside.", "trigger" => "Next quarterly filing for cash flow clarification; option exercise announcement"}

  • 👁

    {"entity" => "Leidos Holdings Inc. (QTC Medical Services)", "reason" => "VA medical exam contract is 96% outlayed; no follow-on visible in this data set.", "trigger" => "New VA Region 1 solicitation release or award"}

  • 👁

    {"entity" => "Missouri Higher Education Loan Authority / Department of Education", "reason" => "Large $639.6M obligation with unknown pricing and competition signals; vulnerable to civilian budget cuts or deobligation.", "trigger" => "FY2027 Education appropriations bill; CR expiration"}

Get daily alerts with 2 investment signals, 3 risk alerts, 2 opportunities and full AI analysis of all 3 filings

$30/mo after a 14-day free trial — no credit card required. See pricing or explore intelligence streams.

More from: Contract Deobligations Alert

🇺🇸 More from United States

View all →