Executive Summary
This digest covers three contracts totaling $860.4 million, with a heavily civilian tilt (2 of 3 contracts, $724.2 million) and only one defense-adjacent award ($136.2 million). The dominant agency theme is civilian health and education spending, led by a $639.6 million Department of Education modification to Missouri Higher Education Loan Authority—a neutral, low-visibility obligation.
The highest-conviction signal is Booz Allen Hamilton’s $136.2 million competitive win at Tinker AFB, a stable defense-adjacent IT services contract with moderate pricing risk. A key risk is the near-complete execution of Leidos’ $84.6 million VA medical exam contract, leaving minimal forward revenue visibility for that subsidiary. No bullish or bearish signals were identified across the set; all three contracts are neutral, reflecting routine obligations rather than transformative wins or losses.
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Tracking the trend? Catch up on the prior Contract Deobligations Alert digest from August 12, 2026.
Investment Signals (2)
- Leidos (QTC Medical Services) VA Contract Nearly Fully Outlayed – $84.6M (HIGH)▲
The $84.6 million firm-fixed-price VA medical exam contract for QTC Medical Services (Leidos subsidiary) is 96% outlayed ($80.9M of $84.6M), leaving minimal remaining revenue and no forward visibility for this specific award.
- Booz Allen Hamilton Tinker AFB Contract Has Negative Outlayed Amount – $136.2M (MEDIUM)▲
The Booz Allen Hamilton $136.2 million GSA delivery order at Tinker AFB shows a negative outlayed amount in the data, which could indicate accounting adjustments or cash flow issues that require monitoring.
Risk Flags (3)
- Execution [MEDIUM RISK]▼
Booz Allen Hamilton’s $136.2 million Tinker AFB contract has a negative outlayed amount, potentially signaling cash flow timing issues or contract modification accounting that could affect near-term revenue recognition.
- Concentration [MEDIUM RISK]▼
Leidos’ VA medical exam revenue is concentrated in a single, nearly completed contract ($84.6M, 96% outlayed), with no follow-on award visible in this data set, creating a gap in health services revenue visibility.
- Budget [MEDIUM RISK]▼
The $639.6 million Department of Education modification to Missouri Higher Education Loan Authority carries unknown pricing and competition signals, and given civilian agency budget uncertainty under a potential Continuing Resolution, this large obligation may face deobligation risk.
Opportunities (2)
- ◆
Booz Allen Hamilton’s competitive win at Tinker AFB ($136.2M, ceiling $161.5M) positions the company for follow-on IT and mission assurance work at a key Air Force base, with option exercises potentially increasing total value by 19%.
- ◆
The VA’s $84.6 million firm-fixed-price award to Leidos’ QTC subsidiary under the Veterans Benefits Improvement Act signals stable statutory demand for medical disability exams, creating a potential re-compete opportunity in Region 1 (Northeast).
Sector Themes (2)
- ◆
Two of three contracts ($724.2M, 84% of total value) are civilian—Education and VA—with neutral signals and limited forward revenue visibility, contrasting with defense-adjacent contracts that offer longer performance periods.
- ◆
Both Booz Allen Hamilton and Leidos (QTC) won their contracts under full-and-open competition with no set-asides, indicating competitive moats in defense-adjacent IT and VA medical exams respectively.
Watch List (3)
- 👁
{"entity" => "Booz Allen Hamilton Inc.", "reason" => "Negative outlayed amount on $136.2M Tinker AFB contract and option exercise potential ($161.5M ceiling) create both risk and upside.", "trigger" => "Next quarterly filing for cash flow clarification; option exercise announcement"}
- 👁
{"entity" => "Leidos Holdings Inc. (QTC Medical Services)", "reason" => "VA medical exam contract is 96% outlayed; no follow-on visible in this data set.", "trigger" => "New VA Region 1 solicitation release or award"}
- 👁
{"entity" => "Missouri Higher Education Loan Authority / Department of Education", "reason" => "Large $639.6M obligation with unknown pricing and competition signals; vulnerable to civilian budget cuts or deobligation.", "trigger" => "FY2027 Education appropriations bill; CR expiration"}
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