Executive Summary
This digest synthesizes 13 DHS contracts totaling $295,871,618 in obligations, all civilian with 0 defense-related awards, spanning FEMA disaster relief, ICE health/security services, and CISA IT support. Dominant themes include multi-year FEMA IT modernization (e.g., Monkton Inc. $27.5M) and protective security services (Universal Protection Service $31.4M), with average signal strength of 4.2/10 reflecting neutral sector dynamics.
Highest-conviction bullish signals emerge from Universal Protection Service's $31.4M (potential $198M) Illinois PSO contract and Monkton Inc.'s $27.5M (potential $49.4M) Individual Assistance IT modernization, signaling durable revenue if options exercise. Key risk is pervasive high firm-fixed-price execution across top awards like MLU Services' $31.9M logistics housing; watch option exercises and outlay progress amid zero defense exposure limiting sector breadth for investors.
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Tracking the trend? Catch up on the prior DHS Homeland Security Contracts digest from May 07, 2026.
Investment Signals (4)
- Universal Protection Service Secures $31.4M DHS PSO Delivery Order with $198M Potential (MEDIUM)▲
Universal Protection Service won a firm-fixed-price delivery order for statewide Illinois protective security officer services (performance 2025-12-01 to 2030-11-30) via full and open competition, with $31.4M obligated and base + options at $198.2M but $0 outlayed to date.
- Monkton Inc. Awarded $27.5M FEMA IT Modernization Delivery Order (MEDIUM)▲
Self-certified small disadvantaged business Monkton Inc. received a firm-fixed-price delivery order for Individual Assistance Modernization IT services (NAICS 541512) from FEMA, spanning 2025-09-30 to 2029-09-29 with $27.5M obligated and potential $49.4M ceiling via full and open competition.
- Booz Allen Hamilton Lands $21.6M FEMA Exercise Support Delivery Order (LOW)▲
Booz Allen Hamilton secured a time-and-materials delivery order for National Exercise Division support (NAICS 541330) with $21.6M obligated ($33.6M potential), $16.4M outlayed, and $12.5M in subawards through potential 2027-07-14.
- MLU Services Faces High Execution Risk on $31.9M FEMA Logistics Contract (HIGH)▲
MLU Services' firm-fixed-price small business set-aside delivery order for DR-4611-LA housing operations carries high pricing risk despite $16.8M outlayed on $31.9M obligation (potential $49.7M), tied to event-specific disaster relief through 2026-05-01.
Risk Flags (2)
- Execution [HIGH RISK]▼
High firm-fixed-price risks prevalent in top awards like MLU Services $31.9M logistics, Universal Protection $31.4M PSO, Ardent Group $28.4M ICE pharmacy, and Monkton $27.5M IT, with many showing low/zero outlays (e.g., Universal $0, Ardent $0).
- Budget [MEDIUM RISK]▼
Newer contracts like Sev1Tech $19.3M CISA CEEOSS and Monkton $27.5M FEMA IT show $0 outlays despite recent awards (2025), vulnerable to DHS budget shifts amid CR uncertainty for Oct-Dec awards.
Opportunities (3)
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Universal Protection Service $198M option ceiling on $31.4M Illinois PSO contract offers multi-year security services expansion through 2030-11-30.
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Monkton Inc. $49.4M potential on $27.5M FEMA IT modernization delivery order supports 4-year Individual Assistance upgrade.
- ◆
Small business set-asides like Potawatomi Training $24.1M (8(a)/HUBZone) FEMA CDP training and MLU Services $31.9M disaster logistics signal policy-driven wins with $41.7M/$49.7M potentials.
Sector Themes (2)
- ◆
FEMA awards emphasize IT modernization (Monkton $27.5M Individual Assistance) and training/exercise support (Potawatomi $24.1M CDP, Booz Allen $21.6M exercises, Guidehouse $14.9M financial PMO), with obligations totaling over $88M across 4 contracts.
- ◆
ICE/CBP/CISA focus on security (Universal Protection $31.4M PSO, Anasec $20.9M background checks, Sev1Tech $19.3M CISA engineering) and pharmacy/investigative (Ardent $28.4M, LexisNexis $22.1M) totals ~$122M, mostly full/open competition.
Watch List (4)
- 👁
{"entity"=>"Universal Protection Service, Limited Partnership", "reason"=>"$31.4M obligation with $198M potential but $0 outlayed on 5-year PSO contract", "trigger"=>"option exercises beyond base; outlay increases from $0"}
- 👁
{"entity"=>"Monkton, Inc.", "reason"=>"$27.5M FEMA IT delivery order (potential $49.4M) starts 2025-09-30 with $0 outlayed", "trigger"=>"outlay progress; option exercises toward $49.4M by 2029-09-29"}
- 👁
{"entity"=>"MLU Services, LLC", "reason"=>"$31.9M firm-fixed-price disaster logistics with $16.8M outlayed, event-tied to DR-4611-LA", "trigger"=>"options to $49.7M; performance end 2026-05-01 vs. potential 2026-08-22"}
- 👁
{"entity"=>"Booz Allen Hamilton Inc. (BAH)", "reason"=>"$21.6M FEMA exercises order with $16.4M outlayed and $12.5M subawards (potential $33.6M)", "trigger"=>"outlay beyond $16.4M; options to 2027-07-14"}
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