Executive Summary
This digest covers a single, large civilian contract from the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) to Serco Services Inc. worth $321.3 million, representing the entire $321.3 million aggregate obligation for the period. The contract, awarded in 2009 and completed in 2016, is a historical artifact with zero current outlays, providing no actionable forward-looking revenue signal for Serco.
The neutral signal strength (4/10) and low materiality (2/10) reflect the contract's expired status and mature, low-margin administrative services nature. The key risk is the lack of current DHS contract data for Serco, creating a visibility gap on its civilian backlog, while the key watch item is any potential follow-on or recompete for USCIS National Benefits Center support.
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Tracking the trend? Catch up on the prior DHS Homeland Security Contracts digest from July 29, 2026.
Risk Flags (1)
- Concentration [MEDIUM RISK]▼
Serco Services Inc. has a large historical contract ($321.3M) with DHS/USCIS that is now expired with $0 outlayed, creating a significant revenue gap and no current visibility into its civilian backlog. The company's reliance on this single past award for DHS exposure is a concentration risk.
Opportunities (1)
- ◆
A potential recompete or follow-on contract for the USCIS National Benefits Center Records Support Program could provide a material revenue opportunity for Serco or a competitor, given the $321.3M historical value.
Sector Themes (1)
- ◆
The single contract is for low-tech, labor-intensive office administrative services (NAICS 561110) under a cost-plus-award-fee structure, indicating DHS's preference for risk-sharing in stable, non-technical support functions.
Watch List (1)
- 👁
{"entity" => "Serco Services Inc.", "reason" => "The $321.3M USCIS contract is expired with no current outlays, creating a revenue gap and uncertainty about Serco's DHS backlog.", "trigger" => "Any new DHS contract award to Serco or USCIS solicitation for records support"}
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