Mega Contracts Monitor ($100M+) — March 29, 2026

Carahsoft ($465M, $336M outlayed) and Leidos ($234M fully obligated, $157M outlayed) secure 5-year deals to 2028-2029 for CMS verification and NIH COVID research.

IDEMIA awarded non-competed firm fixed price contract with minor options, signaling entrenched position despite $0 outlays to date.

Family Endeavors hits 100% outlay on 2-year T&M influx care contract with $3.3B options potential to late 2025.

$0 outlays on 7+ year IDEMIA contract signals potential delays or funding holds.

FFP structures in Carahsoft ($465M) and IDEMIA ($204M) expose to cost overruns amid long 5+ year periods.

Options form bulk of value (e.g., $1.6B beyond Carahsoft obligation; $2.98B for Family), not guaranteed and vulnerable to recompetes.

$128M remaining outlays on Carahsoft + $77M on Leidos provide near-term cash flow visibility.

$5.6B+ options across contracts, led by Family Endeavors ($3.3B) and Carahsoft ($2.1B), for expansion in health/services.

Long-term HHS stability to 2029 in software/R&D amid ongoing health priorities.

56% of value ($699M) in CMS/NIH software publishing, verification, and R&D services to 2029.

High-upside options in DOI influx care ($3.3B potential) and DOS passports amid border/passport backlogs.

{"entity"=>"Carahsoft Technology Corp", "reason"=>"Largest obligation ($465M, 72% outlayed) with $2.1B options in growing CMS verification.", "trigger"=>"options exercised or outlays >90%"}

{"entity"=>"IDEMIA National Security Solutions LLC", "reason"=>"$0 outlays on $204M despite 7-year tenure flags delays.", "trigger"=>"first material outlays or modifications"}

{"entity"=>"Family Endeavors Inc options ($3.3B)", "reason"=>"Largest potential value post-full obligation; T&M pricing suits volatile influx care.", "trigger"=>"performance extension to 2025-11 or new ORR funding"}