Executive Summary
The four contracts analyzed total $3.08 billion in obligations, all from civilian agencies, with zero defense-related awards. The dominant theme is a massive, single $2.59 billion Department of Homeland Security award to FISHER SAND & GRAVEL CO, which accounts for 84% of total value and is the only bullish signal (strength 7/10).
However, this award lacks pricing, competition, and revenue detail, creating significant uncertainty. Leidos, Inc. secured a $234.9 million firm-fixed-price IT support contract from CMS, a neutral signal reinforcing its competitive position in civilian IT services. The remaining two awards—NW CONSTRUCTION, INC ($139.3M, Interior) and SURATECH LLC ($113.3M, DOE)—are neutral, with the latter being a long-term management contract for a government-owned facility. Key risk: the FISHER SAND & GRAVEL award’s opacity and lack of public company exposure limit direct investment actionability.
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Investment Signals (4)
- FISHER SAND & GRAVEL CO Wins $2.59B DHS Contract – Dominant Civilian Award (MEDIUM)▲
FISHER SAND & GRAVEL CO received a $2.59 billion defense-related contract from DHS, the largest award in the period by a wide margin. The bullish signal (7/10) is driven by sheer size, but the lack of pricing, competition, and revenue data creates ambiguity.
- Leidos, Inc. Secures $234.9M CMS IT Services Contract – Competitive Win (MEDIUM)▲
Leidos, Inc. won a $234.9 million firm-fixed-price delivery order from CMS for end-user IT support, with $112M outlayed. Full and open competition signals merit-based win, but the contract is near completion (2018-2023), limiting near-term revenue impact.
- NW CONSTRUCTION, INC Receives $139.3M Interior Modification – Detail-Limited (LOW)▲
NW CONSTRUCTION, INC received a $139.3 million contract modification from the Department of the Interior. The neutral signal (5/10) reflects the lack of pricing, competition, and revenue data, making it a low-conviction event.
- SURATECH LLC Wins $113.3M DOE Facility Management Contract – Stable but Private (LOW)▲
SURATECH LLC, a private nonprofit, won a $115.7M cost-plus-award-fee contract to operate the Thomas Jefferson National Accelerator Facility. The neutral signal (4/10) reflects stable DOE funding but limited direct investment implications due to private ownership.
Risk Flags (3)
- Concentration [HIGH RISK]▼
The $2.59B FISHER SAND & GRAVEL CO award represents 84% of total obligation value, creating extreme single-contract concentration. Any protest, budget cut, or execution failure would dominate the portfolio.
- Execution [MEDIUM RISK]▼
Leidos' $234.9M CMS IT services contract is near completion (2018-2023), with only $112M outlayed of $234.9M obligated. Under-execution could signal scope reduction or performance issues, though firm-fixed-price reduces cost risk.
- Budget [MEDIUM RISK]▼
SURATECH LLC's $113.3M DOE contract is cost-plus-award-fee, which limits profit upside but reduces risk. However, DOE budget allocations for nuclear physics could face pressure in a CR environment, threatening renewal after 2031.
Opportunities (3)
- ◆
Leidos' competitive win at CMS ($234.9M) reinforces its position in civilian IT services. With full and open competition, Leidos demonstrated pricing and capability strength, positioning it for future CMS re-competes or similar HHS contracts.
- ◆
FISHER SAND & GRAVEL CO's $2.59B DHS award, though opaque, signals potential for similar large-scale infrastructure or logistics contracts from DHS or other civilian agencies. If the company is public or acquired, this could unlock value.
- ◆
NW CONSTRUCTION, INC's $139.3M Interior modification could be a set-aside (8(a), SDVOSB, HUBZone), though data is missing. If confirmed, it highlights policy-driven opportunities in construction for small businesses at Interior.
Sector Themes (2)
- ◆
The $2.59B DHS award to FISHER SAND & GRAVEL CO, combined with $139.3M Interior construction modification, signals robust civilian infrastructure spending. DHS and Interior are prioritizing large-scale construction and logistics contracts.
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SURATECH LLC's $113.3M DOE contract to operate TJNAF underscores stable, long-term funding for government-owned, contractor-operated (GOCO) R&D facilities. This is a recurring theme for DOE national labs.
Watch List (3)
- 👁
{"entity"=>"FISHER SAND & GRAVEL CO", "reason"=>"The $2.59B DHS award is the largest and most opaque contract; any additional disclosure (pricing, competition, revenue) could materially change the investment thesis.", "trigger"=>"SEC filing, press release, or contract modification detailing pricing and scope"}
- 👁
{"entity"=>"Leidos, Inc.", "reason"=>"The $234.9M CMS contract is near completion; a re-compete or new award from CMS would signal continued competitive strength in civilian IT services.", "trigger"=>"CMS solicitation for IT support services (expected 2024-2025)"}
- 👁
{"entity"=>"SURATECH LLC", "reason"=>"The $113.3M DOE contract has no outlays to date; first outlay will confirm execution and funding flow.", "trigger"=>"First obligation outlay in USAspending.gov data"}
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