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Significant Contract Modifications ($10M+) — July 16, 2026

Significant Contract Modifications ($10M+)

By Gunpowder Editorial ·

20 total filings analysed

Executive Summary

This digest of 20 significant contract modifications, totaling $1.39 billion, reveals a pronounced civilian agency focus, with only one defense-related award. The dominant theme is stable, recurring revenue from IT modernization and infrastructure projects at agencies like HHS, NASA, and the VA.

The highest-conviction signal is L3Harris's $913.4 million sole-source SBS II contract with the FAA, providing a substantial, predictable revenue stream. A key risk is the high concentration of firm-fixed-price contracts (12 of 20), which transfer cost overrun risk to contractors, particularly for smaller firms like The Trevino Group and AMCOR JV ONE LLC.

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Tracking the trend? Catch up on the prior Significant Contract Modifications ($10M+) digest from July 15, 2026.

Investment Signals (7)

  • L3Harris Secures $913.4M Sole-Source FAA Contract for SBS II (HIGH)

    L3Harris won a sole-source, firm-fixed-price contract with a base obligation of $70.7M and a total potential value of $913.4M over five years for the FAA's SBS II program. This reinforces its incumbent position in aviation surveillance and provides a significant, predictable long-term revenue stream.

  • Northrop Grumman's Sole-Source NASA MAPS Contract Reduces Risk (MEDIUM)

    Northrop Grumman received an $80.6M cost-plus-fixed-fee contract for the Mars Ascent Propulsion System, a sole-source award that reduces financial risk and signals a strong proprietary position in critical space propulsion technology.

  • AT&T Wins $133M DHS Telecom Contract on Competitive Merit (MEDIUM)

    AT&T secured a $73M delivery order (potential $133M with options) under the DHS Enterprise Infrastructure Solutions program. The full-and-open competition win reinforces AT&T's competitive position in the federal telecom market and provides a long-term revenue stream through 2032.

  • Advanced Space LLC Secures $95.6M NASA Deep Space Contract (MEDIUM)

    Advanced Space LLC won a $51.4M firm-fixed-price contract (potential $95.6M) for the CAPSTONE extended mission. As a small business set-aside, this signals strong NASA confidence and provides multi-year revenue visibility for deep space operations.

  • NEXTGEN Federal Systems Wins $169.8M HUBZone Engineering Contract (MEDIUM)

    NEXTGEN Federal Systems, a small HUBZone firm, received a $53.4M delivery order (potential $169.8M) from GSA FEDSIM. The cost-plus-award-fee pricing and small business set-aside reduce risk and signal strong government demand for specialized engineering services from HUBZone firms.

  • Deloitte Wins $122.6M HUD Digital Transformation Contract (MEDIUM)

    Deloitte Consulting LLP secured a $48.2M delivery order (potential $122.6M) from HUD for digital transformation software development. The full-and-open competition win signals Deloitte's competitive strength in federal IT services and provides a multi-year revenue stream through 2030.

  • Precise Federal Consulting Wins $51.1M HHS Training Contract (MEDIUM)

    Precise Federal Consulting, a small, economically disadvantaged women-owned business, secured a $48.8M cost-plus-fixed-fee delivery order from HHS/CMS. The cost-plus structure reduces risk, and the five-year performance period provides stable, recurring revenue.

Risk Flags (4)

  • Execution [HIGH RISK]

    High concentration of firm-fixed-price contracts (12 of 20) transfers cost overrun risk to contractors. The Trevino Group's $48.9M VA infrastructure contract and AMCOR JV ONE LLC's $58.1M VA EHRM construction contract are particularly exposed, as they are smaller firms with no prior outlays on these projects.

  • Budget [MEDIUM RISK]

    Only 1 of 20 contracts is defense-related, indicating a heavy reliance on civilian agency budgets. Civilian agencies are more susceptible to Continuing Resolution (CR) uncertainty and annual appropriations volatility, particularly for contracts awarded in the Oct-Dec period.

  • Competition [MEDIUM RISK]

    Several sole-source awards (Northrop Grumman, L3Harris, Smiths Detection) face potential re-competition risk at contract end. L3Harris's SBS II contract, while sole-source, may face protests or competitive challenges, threatening its $913.4M revenue stream.

  • Concentration [LOW RISK]

    Booz Allen Hamilton appears twice in the digest (HHS/CDC and GSA), totaling $109.3M in obligations. While not transformative for a $10B revenue firm, this concentration in civilian IT services exposes the company to budget cuts at HHS or GSA.

Opportunities (4)

  • L3Harris's sole-source SBS II contract with the FAA presents a significant growth opportunity if all options are exercised, potentially adding $913.4M in revenue over five years. The incumbent position reduces competitive risk.

  • Deloitte's $122.6M HUD digital transformation contract and AT&T's $133M DHS telecom contract signal growing civilian agency investment in IT modernization. This creates opportunities for other large IT services firms like Accenture Federal Services and Booz Allen Hamilton.

  • Multiple set-aside awards (NEXTGEN Federal Systems, Advanced Space LLC, Precise Federal Consulting, The Trevino Group, AMCOR JV ONE LLC) indicate strong federal policy support for small, HUBZone, SDVOSB, and women-owned businesses. This creates opportunities for similar firms to win contracts in engineering, construction, and IT services.

  • Despite only one defense contract, Northrop Grumman's sole-source NASA MAPS contract highlights the potential for defense primes to expand into civilian space programs. This trend could benefit other defense contractors like Lockheed Martin and Boeing.

Sector Themes (3)

  • Contracts from HUD ($122.6M to Deloitte), DHS ($133M to AT&T), and DOE ($56.96M to Accenture Federal Services) demonstrate sustained civilian agency investment in digital transformation, cloud services, and telecom infrastructure.

  • Two NASA contracts (Northrop Grumman's $80.6M MAPS and Advanced Space's $95.6M CAPSTONE) signal continued investment in deep space and cislunar exploration, with a focus on small business R&D and sole-source propulsion technology.

  • Two VA contracts (AMCOR JV ONE LLC's $58.1M EHRM infrastructure and The Trevino Group's $48.9M hospital improvements) indicate sustained federal spending on healthcare facility modernization, particularly for EHRM-related construction.

Watch List (5)

  • 👁

    {"entity"=>"L3Harris Technologies, Inc.", "reason"=>"The $913.4M SBS II contract is a significant revenue driver. Monitor for option exercises and any protests challenging the sole-source award.", "trigger"=>"Option exercise announcements; GAO protest filings"}

  • 👁

    {"entity"=>"Northrop Grumman Systems Corporation", "reason"=>"The $80.6M MAPS contract is a sole-source win for critical space propulsion. Monitor for follow-on Mars exploration contracts.", "trigger"=>"NASA budget announcements for Mars programs; MAPS option exercises"}

  • 👁

    {"entity"=>"Booz Allen Hamilton Inc", "reason"=>"Two contracts totaling $109.3M from HHS and GSA. Monitor for option exercises and any budget cuts at civilian agencies.", "trigger"=>"HHS and GSA budget appropriations; DCIPHER and CPIC PMO option exercises"}

  • 👁

    {"entity"=>"The Trevino Group, Inc.", "reason"=>"The $48.9M VA contract is a high-risk fixed-price award with no outlays yet. Monitor for execution delays or cost overruns.", "trigger"=>"First progress payment; contract modifications"}

  • 👁

    {"entity"=>"Advanced Space LLC", "reason"=>"The $95.6M NASA CAPSTONE contract is a significant win for a small business. Monitor for option exercises and follow-on deep space contracts.", "trigger"=>"NASA CAPSTONE option exercises; new NASA RFP for cislunar missions"}

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