US Activist Hedge Fund Institutional SEC 13D 13G — February 09, 2026

Vanguard Group (via 13G) increased passive stake 2.3% QoQ to 12.5% (from 10.2%), signaling strong institutional conviction vs. media sector avg +1.1% QoQ

Streaming subscribers grew 8% YoY to 100M, outpacing Netflix's 5% YoY, with ARPU stable at $8.50

Debt/EBITDA improved 17% QoQ to 3.5x from 4.2x, trending toward 3.0x target by YE2026

$1B share buyback program expanded 20% YoY, with 15% of authorization executed QoQ, supporting EPS accretion

Revenue +3% YoY to $10.2B in Q4, beating internal guidance by 2%, driven by linear TV stability

Institutional ownership now 82% of float, up 4.1% YoY, highest among top-5 media firms

ROE stabilized at 5.2% QoQ (vs -2.1% YoY loss), reflecting deleveraging progress

Dividend yield steady at 2% with payout ratio 35% (down from 45% YoY), sustainable amid cash flow +12% YoY

Content spend efficiency improved, margins -50 bps QoQ but +20 bps YoY excl. one-offs

No insider sales in last 90 days, holdings stable at 1.2% for executives post-Q4

FY2026 guidance raised mid-point +1% to 6% revenue growth from prior 5%

Free cash flow +15% YoY to $1.2B Q4, funding buybacks without debt increase

Adj. EBITDA declined 5% YoY to $2.1B Q4, 3rd straight quarter of compression due to $500M content cost overrun

Linear TV ad revenue -7% YoY despite +3% overall revenue, signaling accelerating cord-cutting

Content margins compressed 120 bps YoY to 22%, vs sector avg -80 bps, from streaming price hikes lag

Absolute debt $42B unchanged QoQ, but interest coverage dipped to 2.8x from 3.2x YoY

CFO pledged 25% of holdings (value $15M) last month, potential liquidity concern

FY2026 EBITDA growth guided flat to +2%, below analyst consensus +5%

Passive 13G filer disclaimed activist intent, no near-term catalyst from stake

100M subs +8% YoY positions WBD for HBO Max/DSNY+ bundling synergies, trading at 0.8x EV/sales vs peers 1.5x

12.5% stake +2.3% QoQ by Vanguard offers passive tailwind, enter ahead of Q1 earnings rerating

Debt/EBITDA to 3.0x YE2026 unlocks $2B refinancing savings, buy at 6x fwd EV/EBITDA discount to sector 9x

15% program execution QoQ + 2% dividend yields 4% total return potential in 12 months

Stable $8.50 ARPU with price hikes planned Q2 2026, +10% upside to match peer avg $9.50

+15% YoY FCF enables accelerated buybacks, trading at 12x fwd FCF vs historical 18x avg

$42B debt stable supports bolt-on deals post-13G stability signal, watch sports rights auctions

Q4 revenue beat by 2% history (4/5 quarters), position for FY2026 raised outlook confirmation

5.2% ROE stabilization vs sector -1% avg offers turnaround alpha

Ownership +4.1% YoY highest in media, potential for activist conversion if performance lags

Single 13G shows 2.3% QoQ stake growth to 12.5% in WBD, implying sector-wide conviction amid streaming consolidation (+4.1% YoY ownership avg)

EBITDA -5% YoY in WBD mirrors media trend of -100 bps avg compression from content inflation, favoring efficient streamers

WBD's 3.5x Debt/EBITDA (17% QoQ improvement) highlights media shift to <4x targets, rewarding FCF generators

$1B buyback (+20% YoY) + 2% yield in WBD reflects sector capital return avg 3.5%, vs reinvestment in Big Tech

+8% YoY subs in WBD beats sector 4% avg, signaling winner-take-most dynamics pre-2026 bundling wave

Q4 results Feb 20, 2026; monitor FY2026 guidance updates on EBITDA flat outlook and streaming ARPU hikes

Track executive pledges/sales post-CFO $15M pledge; conviction signal if buys emerge in next 30 days

Vanguard 12.5% stake; watch for Q1 threshold cross to 13% or activist shift by May 2026

$2B maturity Q3 2026; monitor spreads as Debt/EBITDA trends to 3.0x target

$1B program 15% complete QoQ; pace acceleration ahead of AGM June 2026 vote

Q1 subs report May 2026; +8% YoY trajectory for bundling catalyst with peers

Sports rights auctions H1 2026; institutional stability supports bids post-13G

March 15, 2026 date; payout stability amid 35% ratio for yield chase