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Significant Contract Modifications ($10M+) — May 21, 2026

Significant Contract Modifications ($10M+)

By Gunpowder Editorial ·

5 total filings analysed

Executive Summary

This digest covers $755.9 million in total obligations across five civilian agency contracts, with zero defense-related awards. The Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) dominates, accounting for four of five contracts and $685.3 million (91% of total value), led by a $432.5 million Leidos Biomedical Research GOCO facility operations award from NIH.

The highest-conviction signal is Leidos' stable, multi-year cost-plus revenue stream, though only $1.15 million has been outlaid to date, signaling early-stage execution risk. A key watch item is the August 2024 expiration of SOFTRAMS LLC's $80.7 million CMS IT contract, which creates a potential revenue cliff for that small business. General Dynamics Information Technology's $70.6 million initial obligation on a $1.25 billion ceiling GSA IT contract provides long-term visibility but faces full-and-open competition pressure. No bearish signals were identified, but neutral ratings on three contracts reflect pricing risk, expiration cliffs, or minimal actual revenue recognition.

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Tracking the trend? Catch up on the prior Significant Contract Modifications ($10M+) digest from May 20, 2026.

Investment Signals (3)

  • Leidos Biomedical Research Secures $432.5M NIH GOCO Facility Contract (HIGH)

    Leidos Holdings subsidiary won a $432.5 million cost-plus-fixed-fee delivery order to operate an NIH R&D facility through May 2026, providing a stable $64.6 million annual revenue stream with low pricing risk.

  • Peraton Wins $95.1M CMS Fraud Prevention System 2 Contract (MEDIUM)

    Peraton Inc., a Veritas Capital portfolio company, secured a $95.1 million delivery order (options up to $118.7M) for CMS fraud prevention IT services through June 2026, with time-and-materials pricing providing some flexibility.

  • General Dynamics IT Wins $1.25B Ceiling GSA EMITS 2 Contract (MEDIUM)

    General Dynamics Information Technology received a $70.6 million initial obligation on a $1.25 billion ceiling cost-plus-award-fee contract for enterprise IT management support services, with options extending to 2033, representing a long-term revenue catalyst.

Risk Flags (4)

  • Execution [MEDIUM RISK]

    Leidos' $432.5M NIH contract has only $1.15 million outlaid (0.3% of total), indicating early-stage execution risk and potential for slow ramp-up or scope changes.

  • Concentration [HIGH RISK]

    SOFTRAMS LLC's $80.7M CMS IT contract expires August 2024 with no options, creating a 100% revenue cliff for this small HUBZone firm if not renewed or recompeted.

  • Execution [LOW RISK]

    Chimerix Inc.'s $77.1M BARDA contract (2011-2021) saw only $52,775 outlaid (0.07% utilization), signaling minimal actual revenue despite large ceiling, and the contract is now expired.

  • Competition [MEDIUM RISK]

    General Dynamics IT's $1.25B GSA EMITS 2 contract was awarded under full-and-open competition, meaning no protected market position and potential for aggressive pricing by rivals.

Opportunities (3)

  • CMS fraud prevention spending is politically supported and high-budget; Peraton's $95.1M FPS2 contract positions it for follow-on work as healthcare fraud detection remains a priority.

  • General Dynamics IT's $1.25B GSA EMITS 2 ceiling provides significant upside as incremental funding obligations are released; current $70.6M obligation represents only 5.6% of ceiling.

  • SOFTRAMS LLC's HUBZone set-aside contract demonstrates CMS's commitment to small business diversity; if recompeted as a set-aside, SOFTRAMS has incumbency advantage despite fixed-price risk.

Sector Themes (2)

  • Three of five contracts ($246.4M combined) involve IT services for HHS agencies, specifically CMS fraud prevention (Peraton $95.1M), CMS IT operations (SOFTRAMS $80.7M), and GSA enterprise IT (GDIT $70.6M), signaling sustained civilian investment in digital infrastructure.

  • Leidos' $432.5M GOCO facility contract represents the largest award in this digest, highlighting NIH's reliance on contractor-operated R&D facilities for core mission support, with cost-plus pricing reducing profit volatility.

Watch List (4)

  • 👁

    {"entity"=>"SOFTRAMS LLC", "reason"=>"$80.7M CMS IT contract expires August 2024 with no options; represents 100% of identified contract revenue for this small business.", "trigger"=>"Re-compete solicitation announcement or contract extension before August 2024"}

  • 👁

    {"entity"=>"Leidos Holdings, Inc.", "reason"=>"$432.5M NIH contract has minimal outlay ($1.15M); execution pace and potential scope changes are critical to revenue realization.", "trigger"=>"Quarterly outlay rate updates and contract modification announcements"}

  • 👁

    {"entity"=>"General Dynamics Information Technology", "reason"=>"$1.25B GSA EMITS 2 ceiling provides long-term growth potential; option exercises and incremental funding will signal trajectory.", "trigger"=>"Option exercise announcements and quarterly funding obligation updates"}

  • 👁

    {"entity"=>"Peraton Inc.", "reason"=>"$95.1M CMS fraud prevention contract has options up to $118.7M; performance and customer satisfaction will determine expansion.", "trigger"=>"Option exercise announcements and CMS budget allocations for fraud prevention"}

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