Significant Contract Modifications ($10M+) — March 05, 2026

Two BAE subsidiaries secure $645M obligations ($140M+$0 outlayed) from NASA/FBI, with $199M options and 19-year NASA tenor signaling stable cashflows.

TEPA ($219M), Kiewit ($218M), Maymead ($107M) awards for schools, parks, highways provide 3-5 year revenue visibility, with $140M outlayed.

Wisconsin Physicians ($369M, $251M outlayed to 2026) and Dell ($108M, $71M outlayed to 2027/28) lock multi-year CMS/NIH funding.

$217M delivery order 98% outlayed ($206M) through 2026, with $19M options for ops sustainment.

$149k firm-fixed-price purchase with $0 outlayed, too small to materially impact.

Firm-fixed-price structures in $543M construction deals expose contractors to overruns/delays over 3-5 year periods.

$0 outlays in BAE FBI ($169M) and Lockheed ($149k) flag potential funding/execution delays.

Long tenors (avg. 5+ years to 2029) across 7/9 contracts vulnerable to inflation/labor volatility.

$400M+ unexercised options (e.g., Ball $199M, Wisconsin $71M, Dell $75M) for expansion.

Follow-on potential in BIA/NPS/FHWA construction ($544M cluster) and FAA/DOJ sustainment.

29% of value ($544M) in construction for schools, parks, highways underscores IIJA-like spending continuity.

$891M (47%) in long-term NASA/FBI/FAA awards with cost-plus structures and high outlays.

$477M CMS/NIH commitments through 2026-2028 provide revenue visibility amid policy uncertainty.

{"entity"=>"Ball Corporation", "reason"=>"Dual BAE hits total $645M (34% of stream), with NASA 19-year tenor and FBI BPA upside.", "trigger"=>"Q1 2026 outlays >$20M or FBI call acceleration"}

{"entity"=>"Construction Trio (TEPA, Kiewit, Maymead)", "reason"=>"$544M FFP cluster at early stages ($140M outlayed), sensitive to execution.", "trigger"=>"Outlay acceleration to 50%+ or delay announcements"}

{"entity"=>"RTX (Raytheon)", "reason"=>"$217M FAA near-completion offers follow-on blueprint.", "trigger"=>"$19M option exercise or new STARS DO"}