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Significant Contract Modifications ($10M+) — March 27, 2026

Significant Contract Modifications ($10M+)

By Gunpowder Editorial ·

10 total filings analysed

Executive Summary

This single-day stream of 10 significant contract modifications (> $10M) totals $1.25B in obligations, with 8 bullish signals dominated by IT/services and construction sectors, signaling robust federal spending continuity. Leidos stands out with $146M across two awards, bolstering long-term revenue visibility through 2037.

Firm fixed price structures prevalent (80% of contracts) introduce execution risks, but high outlays in several (e.g., 60-99%) indicate strong funding momentum.

Materiality, sentiment, and priority are scored by Gunpowder’s analysis pipeline. How we score filings →

Tracking the trend? Catch up on the prior Significant Contract Modifications ($10M+) digest from March 26, 2026.

Investment Signals (4)

  • Leidos dual awards signal IT dominance (HIGH)

    Leidos secures $146M in IRS and FAA IT/aeronautical contracts with $115M outlayed and options to $195M total, extending to 2037.

  • Construction firms tap infra rebuild pipeline (HIGH)

    $472M across Caddell, Tutor Perini, BWI JV for embassy, hurricane rebuild, canal projects, with near-full outlays in key awards.

  • Veteran-owned IT firms win large VA/HHS deals (MEDIUM)

    ThunderCat ($222M obligation, $1.56B options) and Empower AI ($125M) highlight SDVOSB advantages in federal IT services.

  • GD IT legacy cyber contract lingers (LOW)

    $81M FAA cyber support with $691M potential options but $0 outlay and ended 2017 period tempers impact.

Risk Flags (3)

  • Execution [HIGH RISK]

    Firm fixed price in 8/10 contracts risks cost overruns on long-duration awards (avg. 5+ years).

  • Market [MEDIUM RISK]

    Low/no outlays in 50% of contracts ($0 in 4 awards) signal delayed cash flows amid fiscal uncertainties.

  • Competitive [MEDIUM RISK]

    Joint ventures and small biz set-asides (e.g., ThunderCat, Heritage) limit revenue attribution and scalability.

Opportunities (3)

  • $2.3B+ in unexercised options (e.g., ThunderCat $1.56B ceiling, Leidos FAA $117M) across IT/infra.

  • Follow-on potential from Phase 1/infra projects (BWI canal, Tutor hurricane rebuild) and re-competes (Leidos PRPS III).

  • Private/SDVOSB winners (ThunderCat, Empower) with $500M+ obligations ripe for M&A by strategics.

Sector Themes (3)

  • 60% of value ($750M+) in IT consulting, cyber, software updates to VA, HHS, IRS, FAA/DOT.

  • 38% ($472M) in construction for embassies, canals, hurricane recovery across State, DOI, DHS.

  • $330M in HHS/DOJ awards for admin consulting, samples, prisoner care.

Watch List (3)

  • 👁

    {"entity"=>"Leidos (LDOS)", "reason"=>"$146M awards with high outlays and long horizons signal backlog growth.", "trigger"=>"Option exercises or new IRS/FAA re-competes"}

  • 👁

    {"entity"=>"Tutor Perini (TPC)", "reason"=>"$117M Coast Guard rebuild with full obligation but $0 outlay tests execution.", "trigger"=>"Outlay ramp-up or Phase III awards"}

  • 👁

    {"entity"=>"ThunderCat Technology", "reason"=>"$222M VA IT with $1.56B ceiling positions as SDVOSB acqui-hire candidate.", "trigger"=>"Strategic bids or option funding"}

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