Executive Summary
The four contract modifications analyzed, totaling $3.08 billion, are entirely civilian in nature, with zero defense-related awards. The dominant signal is a massive $2.59 billion sole-source award to FISHER SAND & GRAVEL CO from the Department of Homeland Security, representing 84% of total obligation value and carrying a bullish 7/10 signal strength.
However, the lack of pricing, competition, or revenue data for this award introduces significant uncertainty. The other three contracts—Leidos, Inc. ($234.9M), NW CONSTRUCTION, INC ($139.3M), and SURATECH LLC ($113.3M)—are neutral signals with lower materiality. Key risk: the FISHER SAND & GRAVEL award's opaque terms and the fact that it is a civilian contract (DHS) rather than defense, making it more vulnerable to budget shifts or continuing resolution (CR) impacts. Investors should watch for outlay data on the FISHER contract and Leidos' CMS renewal prospects.
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Tracking the trend? Catch up on the prior Significant Contract Modifications ($10M+) digest from May 27, 2026.
Investment Signals (3)
- FISHER SAND & GRAVEL CO wins $2.59B DHS contract—largest civilian award in period (MEDIUM)▲
FISHER SAND & GRAVEL CO secured a $2.59 billion contract from the Department of Homeland Security, the largest single award by value (84% of total). The bullish signal (7/10) suggests strong demand for construction or logistics services, but the lack of pricing, competition, or revenue data limits conviction.
- Leidos, Inc. $234.9M CMS IT contract near completion—renewal or re-compete catalyst (HIGH)▲
Leidos' $234.9M firm-fixed-price IT support contract with CMS (2018-2023) is nearing completion with $112M outlayed. The full-and-open competition win reinforces Leidos' competitive position in healthcare IT, but the contract's end creates a re-compete catalyst that could drive upside or downside depending on renewal.
- SURATECH LLC $113.3M DOE contract is private—no direct public equity exposure (HIGH)▲
SURATECH LLC, a private nonprofit, won a $113.3M cost-plus-award-fee contract to manage the Thomas Jefferson National Accelerator Facility. While the contract is stable and mission-critical, the entity is not publicly traded, limiting direct investment implications. Subcontracting opportunities may exist for publicly traded firms.
Risk Flags (3)
- Concentration [HIGH RISK]▼
FISHER SAND & GRAVEL CO's $2.59B award represents 84% of total obligation value, creating extreme single-contract concentration. The lack of pricing, competition, or revenue data for this award introduces execution and budget risk, especially given it is a civilian (DHS) contract subject to CR uncertainty.
- Execution [MEDIUM RISK]▼
NW CONSTRUCTION, INC's $139.3M DOI contract modification has no pricing, competition, or revenue data, raising execution risk. The neutral signal (5/10) and lack of transparency suggest potential cost overruns or scope changes.
- Budget [MEDIUM RISK]▼
All four contracts are civilian, making them more vulnerable to budget sequestration or CR impacts than defense contracts. The $2.59B DHS award is particularly exposed if DHS faces budget cuts or delays.
Opportunities (3)
- ◆
Leidos' $234.9M CMS IT contract win in full-and-open competition signals strong positioning for healthcare IT services. The contract's near-completion creates a re-compete opportunity that could expand Leidos' CMS footprint if renewed.
- ◆
SURATECH LLC's $113.3M DOE contract for TJNAF management may create subcontracting opportunities for publicly traded firms in R&D, engineering, or facilities management. DOE's stable funding for nuclear physics facilities supports long-term demand.
- ◆
FISHER SAND & GRAVEL CO's $2.59B DHS contract, if executed successfully, could signal a new revenue stream for the construction/infrastructure sector. However, the lack of data limits conviction; investors should monitor outlays for confirmation.
Sector Themes (3)
- ◆
Leidos' $234.9M CMS IT support contract (full-and-open competition) reinforces the theme of civilian agency IT modernization, particularly in healthcare. The firm-fixed-price structure suggests manageable margins and stable demand for IT services at HHS/CMS.
- ◆
SURATECH LLC's $113.3M DOE contract for TJNAF management highlights the stable, mission-critical nature of government-owned, contractor-operated (GOCO) R&D facilities. However, the private entity structure limits direct public equity exposure.
- ◆
The $2.59B DHS award to FISHER SAND & GRAVEL CO, with no pricing, competition, or revenue data, underscores the opacity of large civilian infrastructure contracts. This contrasts with defense contracts, which typically have more detailed disclosures.
Watch List (3)
- 👁
{"entity"=>"Leidos, Inc.", "reason"=>"Leidos' $234.9M CMS IT contract is near completion; re-compete or renewal will be a key catalyst for healthcare IT services revenue.", "trigger"=>"CMS IT services re-compete announcement (expected 2024-2025)"}
- 👁
{"entity"=>"FISHER SAND & GRAVEL CO", "reason"=>"The $2.59B DHS contract is the largest award but lacks transparency; outlay data and DHS budget updates will confirm execution.", "trigger"=>"DHS budget allocation for FY2027; first outlay report on FISHER contract"}
- 👁
{"entity"=>"Department of Homeland Security", "reason"=>"DHS is the dominant agency in this period (84% of total value); any budget cuts or CR impacts will directly affect the FISHER contract.", "trigger"=>"FY2027 budget resolution; CR passage by October 1, 2026"}
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